CA requires electric truck sales

[Richard230]

An article in my newspaper today said that California regulators have passed a rule requiring that certain percentages of all truck sales in the state must be fully electric, or otherwise zero emission, including pickup trucks, delivery trucks and tractor-trailer trucks. The rules, which take effect in 2024 will require at least 40% of all tractor-trailer trucks sold in California to be zero emission vehicles by 2035, 55% of pickup trucks and 75% of delivery trucks by that year. Good luck forcing people to buy those vehicles. You know what they say about horses and water.

[notacop]

I'd read that some company is now operating electric semi's that can be autonomous too. Great for companies like WalMart and the distribution system.
A lot of workman, like construction workers, could benefit from an electric truck to get around in an Urban area. Local companies like HVAC repair, etc would be good opportunities too.

[OX-34]

Good luck forcing people to buy those vehicles. You know what they say about horses and water.

You can hand a man a mask at a political rally but you cain't make him wear it.

Richard, nobody can force anyone to buy an electric vehicle. But when your gubbiment decides that perhaps 'climate change' is not some variation of the 19 different names for the CHIINA virus and needs to be taken seriously, then they can force vehicle manufacturers to toe the line. Now there will be some steadfast 'burn it up' types who won't be caught dead with quiet pipes or a lecky truck. About 45% of pickups by your report.

However, despite the fact that in the short term electric vehicles cost more to manufacture, nobody, buddy, can stop the manufacturers from putting the gas-guzzler pickup price up in relation to its production costs to thereby subsidise the lecky pickup price if they feel the need. Same for the other classes of vehicle.

I think that in the land of the free that is called capitalism.

It is also the way of the future in the land of the brave.

[Lag]

My nieces husband is a contractor,. He said "can you see yourself showing up at a job site with the Cyber Truck",,,,,, that pretty much summed it up right there,,. I know not everyone thinks that as there order book is quite busy from what I understand,,. As far as the Semi's, its all about the money, if there is a viable business model that is more profitable then the Diesel, you will see them in droves,,!!

Ford F150 for 2021 has a hybrid model, perhaps this counts towards a portion of there requirement?

[Richard230]

I would say that the lack of a suitable electric grid infrastructure to recharge vehicles with big batteries within a reasonable amount of time is going to be a major obstacle to the introduction of a large number of these vehicles. That and the price, of course. They are still being sold at a premium, compared with gas-powered vehicles (batteries are still very expensive), and government subsides are few and far between and are also fading away as state and federal budgets get squeezed by other concerns.

[OX-34]

Richard, I'm suggesting that the manufacturers will need to squeeze more out of the gas-guzzler customers to pay for the electric vehicle customers, not the government paying for the electric vehicles. In the land of the free citizens hate having to pay for some other dude's health care, but if they want to buy a brand new diesel truck they will end up paying for some other dude's battery.

I'm not sure about the USA and California in particular, but most contractors (we call them 'tradies' here in Oz) live and work in towns and don't need to travel great distances with all of their tools. They will need to charge up at home or on site. The latter is a pretty easy thing to do once it is decided to do something, rather than just whinge about the sound of the engine.

As for the contractors who live and work a long way apart, they will still have the option of fossil fuels for a while longer. Or they will have to stop along the way to charge. Simple.

Creative use of solar-energy technology like flexible panels and especially paint on vehicle bodywork will be a great step forward, like having a trickle charger on a sunny day. Not so good in current smog-towns like L.A. I suppose, but hey presto, the smog will reduce so it will become a win-win.

[Richard230]

I just don't see electric vehicles catching on in a big way in the U.S. Tesla has done well with people who are well-off and trendy, but many other electric vehicle sales (like the Chevy Bolt) are struggling and people who buy pickup trucks are very conservative. Electric motorcycle sales have never gone anywhere. Zero has been selling electric motorcycles for the past 10 years and they are only selling at a rate of about 2-3K a year. No other electric motorcycle manufacturer that makes highway-legal vehicles (excluding the Chinese market that do not sell in the U.S. market and only make low-power bikes) comes anywhere near that number, although the sales of the Italian brand Energica are climbing.

I might add that I have owned five electric motorcycles over the past 11 years, but I am in very much the minority and no one else that I ride with is interested in them.

[Daboo]

Tesla is an example that comes to mind of how much of an issue it'll be to make this happen. I'm using them for an example because they are the pioneers in EV cars and are the most pro-active in making EV cars a reality. If there's a problem for their vehicles with this many years on the market, what can you expect with the new trucks?

If I am driving from Seattle to Spokane, I need to plan out where I'll find a place to recharge. I can count on gas stations anywhere, but I can't count on where I can find a supercharger station or what level of charging performance it'll have.

Just taking a standard route I've done many times when I was in the Washington Air National Guard, from Seattle to Spokane, here's what it looks like using Tesla's "Go Anywhere" website for planning.

Using a Tesla Model S Standard Range model, it routes me on I-90 and shows two charging stations on the way. All seems great.



But then I throw a wrinkle in things. I want to go on a more northerly route on Hwy 20. So I set an interim destination as Tonasket, WA. And this is where it blows up.

If I have the Tesla Model S Long Range model, it'll do it. But only if it routes me to a charging station up in British Columbia. When I try to have it route me across the North Cascades Highway, it barfs and says "Oops! It looks like something went wrong, please try again." And this is with the "Long Range" model.



And if I only have the Tesla Model S Standard Range model, this is that it does to route me through Tonasket to Spokane.



My last trip from the eastern side of Washington State took me through the northern portion of the state along the Grand Coulee dam, and over the North Cascades Highway, Hwy 20. It's a beautiful route with lots of things to see and perfect for a motorcycle, even with the small size of our gas tanks. But for an electric vehicle, it becomes an exercise in "range anxiety", followed closely by "charge anxiety". The first is, can my vehicle make the distance? The second, is how long will it take to recharge?

I wonder how fleet managers will determine how to buy their truck fleets to service all the areas of a state. Not just the area where the legislators live and work, but out in the "fly over" country where towns are far apart? And what happens when the truckers pull into an area to "fill up" and their vehicle takes up the room for all the charging stations because of its size. It's like the legislators decided we'll force change...and someone else will have to figure it out and pay for it.

Look for them to come after your gas-powered, smog producing, hazardous motorcycle next.

Chris

[Biff's R]

I work in the ready mixed concrete industry, and I am around large trucks most of the workday. They are not making any money when they are sitting still, and adding weight for batteries means you have to reduce your load size which in turn would require more shipments to move the same amount of material. Unless there are major improvements in range based upon hours and weight reduction, I don't see a pure EV as being a possibility for a long time. Whoops, I ran outta charge and now I have 10 cy of hard concrete inside my truck won't fly. Many of our customers wouldn't be able to charge onsite, because there isn't electric onsite yet. Maybe diesel-electric hybrids could be in the future(like most trains in the US).

[Richard230]

Attached is a timely article that appeared in my newspaper today. Note that 29% of the buyers of cars in the city of Palo Alto, located close to Tesla HQ, purchased electric vehicles. However, in other parts of the U.S., only 1% of shoppers purchased electric. Meanwhile sales in Europe were 385,000. My understanding is that electric motorcycles in EU countries are also much more popular than they are here. I believe that the majority of Zero electric motorcycle sales are not occurring in Europe. We do love our smog in the U.S.

[steve n rose]

It would cut down on the rolling coal problem.

[OX-34]

...I just don't see electric vehicles catching on in a big way in the U.S. ....

That's ok, the rest of the world don't see electric vehicles catching on in a big way in the U.S. either.

Land of the free, thinkers.

[Hjwqe2]

Thank for information!

[Aeromechb2]

I’m all for moving to electric vehicles but you have to look at what is really to gain from it. Right now in the U.S. most of our electricity comes from the burning of fossil fuels, about 63% of it, Next up is nuclear at about 20%. That leaves less than 20% of power from all renuable sources such as solar, wind and hydroelectric. Going all electric for vehicles just shifts the carbon footprint from the vehicle to to power source for the chargers. Until we find a cost effective way to produce large amounts of electricity without burning fossil fuels, forcing people to go electric is just a “feel good” jesture politicians push to make people think they are doing something productive. If politicians want the move to EV’s to succeed, they need to reduce and simplify regulations for energy types such as nuclear. The U.S. also needs to invest heavily in revamping our infrastructure. Even if we can cleanly produce all the ower needed to go all electric, getting it from the power stations to the charging stations is still a problem. The power grid in this country, like most other parts of our infrastructure, is in bad shape. Just look at the hudge wildfires in California, caused by undermaintained cross country power lines. A while back, large areas of central California were without power for days as the State mandated shutting down the grid for repairs. Imagine not being able to charge your EV for days at a time. Most EV use requires recharging every day, I can fill the tank on my gas vehicle and commute all week. The biggest obsical to going all electric is letting the government dictate how and when its done.

[OX-34]

Back in the day cars had to have a dude carrying a flag walk in front to warn the pedestrians and horses that the new-fangled automobile was coming along. I imagine many others thinking 'what's the point of this thing when there are no gas stations across the country, but there is grass and hay for the horse freely available'.

Early on the elecky supply will be difficult and the battery technology needs improving (Did anybody else in here own a cell/mobile phone in the early 90s that weighed as much as a house brick and lasted just long enough to get a good view of yourself reflected in the shop windows before the battery ran flat?). Maybe we will have to wait at 'gas' station type places for a fast charge. At least we won't have to stop to top up the oil, fix a flat and rebuild the brakes like motorists used to have to do. It will all take too much time bleat the followers. I don't think my time is any more valuable to me than their time was to the car owners back then, by definition. In the states the solution would be easy. Just put a gun shop next to every charging station so the Daboo's MAGA mates could all do some popping shopping while they wait.

Thankfully a bunch of forward thinking people firstly thought it was going to work eventually, secondly stayed on task long enough for the horseless wagon to develop into the long distance marvel that they all are today and thirdly did not listen to the peeps who just said 'it will never happen'.

None of us are made of such pioneering stock if we are not able to learn from our forefathers and just simply get on with getting it done. I think most of us can see electric vehicles are going to work for us in the long run, we just need to man up enough to figure out how to get to that stage.

[Richard230]

The one way that would really boost EV sales is for another gas crisis to occur due to a war in the Middle East again, like what happened during the mid-1970. I experienced that lack of fuel back then and would sit in a long line of cars for couple of hours early in the morning waiting for the local gas station to open so that we could get our 10 gallon ration of fuel before the station ran out for the day. If electric vehicles had been around then, EV sales would have skyrocketed. But right now, gasoline is less expensive than electricity on a mile traveled basis, especially if bought from a commercial EV charging station.

The other thing that definitely is not going to help EV sales is what was said in an article in my newspaper yesterday. California has just adopted new higher electric vehicle fees that went into effect yesterday. Here is what the article said:

"A $100 fee begins today for electric cars with a model year of 2020 or later. This will be followed by an annual registration fee that varies based on the market value of the vehicle. On the low end, the fees are $25 for a vehicle valued at less than $5,000, but anyone with a $60,000-plus plug-in vehicle will be paying $175 per year. It is expected to generate $52 billion over 10 years, which will be put back into the state' budget for infrastructure repairs." (Or so they say..... )

I assume that is in addition to the standard gasoline-fueled vehicle yearly $$$ (typically amounting to hundreds of dollars) registration fees. I have yet to hear if this new fee also applies to electric motorcycles, but I wouldn't be surprised if it did. Electric motorcycles in this state are barely on our legislators' radar. Our legislators seem to think that rich people buying Teslas are the only ones who purchase electric vehicles and therefor can pay additional taxes and fees. But that is not going to boost EV sales among the proletariat, though.

[Richard230]

Here is a link to a government grant experiment with Goodwill Industries that paid for 10 electric delivery box trucks. I saw one of these yesterday in San Francisco.
https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default...s/goodwill.pdf

[Daboo]

I read on the Internet so it must be true, that lithium for electric vehicles batteries comes from Afghanistan, which will be controlled by China probably.

Chris

[Richard230]

I read on the Internet so it must be true, that lithium for electric vehicles batteries comes from Afghanistan, which will be controlled by China probably.

Chris

I have heard the same thing. I think lithium can be found in most places on earth. The main issues appear to be the cost of labor to extract it and the environmental damage that is the result of mining the metal. Employing child and slave labor goes a long way to cut the cost of mining. So the Chinese government coordinating with the Taliban to mine Afghanistan's resources makes a lot of economic sense for them. Both governments can get away with doing things that would never fly in democratic countries with a free press.

[TheMeteor]

I don't see Afghanistan on the top producer or largest reserves list. Top reserves from Forbes in 2019:

1. Chile - 55.5% of the world’s total
2. Australia - 18.1%
3. Argentina - 11.0%
4. China - 6.5%
5. U.S. - 4.1%

Looks Australia, Chile and China are top producers. That said, it looks like Goodwill and California awarded the truck contract to BYD instead of a US truck producer.

[Richard230]

I think when it comes to Afghanistan's untapped resources, hope springs eternal. I have heard that the Chinese are chomping at the bit to start stripping the country for whatever they can find. Plus, if they can get along with the new rulers, that gives them a good location for influence in that very strategic area.

[TheMeteor]

another commercial vehicle coming to market

BrightDrop EV600 Is The Fastest-Developed In GM History (gmauthority.com)

On another note, I find it interesting how Toyota, who has led with hybrids and makes some very good ones, is so reluctant on battery EV and their lack of investment. Similarly for Honda. It will be interesting to see whether their strategies change in the next 24 months.

[Richard230]

another commercial vehicle coming to market

BrightDrop EV600 Is The Fastest-Developed In GM History (gmauthority.com)

On another note, I find it interesting how Toyota, who has led with hybrids and makes some very good ones, is so reluctant on battery EV and their lack of investment. Similarly for Honda. It will be interesting to see whether their strategies change in the next 24 months.

I don't quite know what is up with Toyota except that maybe they are waiting for the EV technology to mature before jumping into the EV market - just like what the Japanese motorcycle manufacturers seem to be doing. On the other hand, Honda has apparently hooked up with GM and is going to let them supply the batteries and power trains for their EV cars, while they will just drop on their chassis platforms. That way they don't have to invest in EV R&D anymore than they already have in the past. While that may be an expedient solution to entering the EV market it may not be the best plan in the long run.

[BoxerBits]

I don't quite know what is up with Toyota except that maybe they are waiting for the EV technology to mature before jumping into the EV market ...:

Might be more a case of knowing the regional market as in Europe and the UK they look to have vans such as :-

https://www.toyota.co.uk/new-cars/proace-ev/

Might it be that there is currently less acceptance of such vehicles in the USA than in other world markets?



Sent from my moto g(8) power lite using Tapatalk

[Lighning]

I never was a fan of electric cars and then I realized my sub $20,000 car payment plus the gas I spend every month is $750. After seeing a VW id4 on the freeway I went to the dealer but they had none so I went to the Ford dealer and drove a Mach-E. Sucker was fast and it wasn’t even the fast model! (expensive though). Eventually I found a single VW dealer unloading an id4, test drove it, and bought it for no money down, with a bumper to bumper factory 70,000 mile warranty, for the $750 a month for the cheap car I was driving before (free charging included for 3 years). I probably broke even at best but it does everything well, is a blast to drive, and goes far enough at 212 miles on a 35 minute charge (80% charged battery).

[TheMeteor]

Tesla is deploying the first Megacharger to charge its Tesla Semi electric truck - Electrek

[notacop]

" Plus, if they can get along with the new rulers, that gives them a good location for influence in that very strategic area."

That's kind of interesting speculation. I don't see the Chinese having any influence on the Taliban. The Chinese are a-religious and the Taliban are the embodiment of religion. The Taliban may be interested in the money they can get for raw material. They can bide their time until they have infiltrated China with those of Muslim faith until they out number the Communist party and take over China.
As far as no one buying electric vehicle over gas, when all that's offered is electric, folks will buy electric. Besides by 2035 the whole scope of electric will have changed. It will be much more developed and not still new and untried.
As for the price of electric trucks, have you priced the new Jeep trucks? Add the diesel motor and it's $10K more.